Here's How Equity Investors Can Play Ethereum’s Merge

It's slim pickings for equity investors looking to trade one of the biggest events in the crypto industry, but there are a few options, including Coinbase and some smaller Canadian companies.

AccessTimeIconSep 14, 2022 at 3:08 p.m. UTC
Updated Sep 15, 2022 at 5:55 p.m. UTC

Aoyon Ashraf is managing editor with more than a decade of experience in covering equity markets

Crypto traders are gearing up for Ethereum’s Merge, the blockchain's transition from a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake (PoS), with assorted markets-related trades. But it's slim pickings for equity investors who want to participate.

“TradFi [traditional finance] investors don’t really have many options yet [to play the Merge] in the public markets,” said Paul McCaffery, co-head of equities and head of alternative capital sales at investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. “Many institutional investors are looking forward to [trading] CME offering ether futures that just went live Sept. 12,” he said.

Nevertheless, there are some potential plays in equity markets, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) among them, according to Wall Street analysts. “At current [ether] ETH price/staked ETH we estimate COIN could generate $250MM revenue and $60MM contribution profit annualized,” said investment bank Cowen’s analysts led by Stephen Glagola in a Sept. 12 research note.

However, he noted that the potential impact of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) censoring transactions related to sanctioned addresses as a key risk factor on the exchange's staking business. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on Aug. 18, that he prefers not censoring transactions to and from those addresses after the transition to proof-of-stake.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan analysts also saw the Merge as potential short-term positive catalyst for Coinbase.

ESG and the miners

The change is expected to eliminate miners and reduce Ethereum's energy consumption by at least 99.95%. This might bring the debate over environmental, social and governance (ESG) aspects of PoW versus PoS to the forefront because it could allow some institutional investors, who were barred from buying tokens that run on PoW, to purchase ether for the first time, Bank of America analysts said in a report this week.

There could also be an indirect impact on the crypto miners, with U.S. lawmakers having scrutinized the PoW process in recent months. “Successful Merge could increase scrutiny and U.S. jurisdiction risk on energy-intensive PoW mining,” said Cowen’s Glagola.

Miners exposed to ether mining, such as Hive Blockchain (HIVE) and Hut 8 Mining (HUT), could also be affected because they will have to pivot to other mineable coins such as ethereum classic (ETC) or repurpose their available fleets of graphics processing units (GPU). Both companies are planning on doing just that.

How the transition will impact the stocks, will likely be worth watching.

Chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) for the GPUs may also see knock-on effects resulting from the Merge. “For GPU suppliers Nvidia and to a lesser extent AMD, we view the upcoming Merge as a long-term positive for sentiment as it likely removes the risk of another painful crypto bang/bust cycle in the future,” Cowen wrote.

This could be particularly true for chip giant Nvidia as it continued to see its cryptocurrency mining processor (CMP) sales declining, dragging down revenues for its “OEM and Other” business unit.

Lesser-known stocks

There are some other smaller stocks exposed to the Ethereum network’s upgrade. Canadian listed Ether Capital (ETHC) is one. The company focuses on yield generation and providing infrastructure that supports the Ethereum ecosystem, according to its website. It owned 44,600 ether and staked ether as of Aug. 12, according to its latest investor presentation.

Another option is Tokens.com, which invests in Web3 assets and staking is among one of its businesses, according to its most recent investor presentation.

“Staking rewards continue to represent attractive revenue opportunities for long-term investors as they provide returns that are paid in kind,” investment bank Stifel Canada analyst Bill Papanastasiou said in an Aug. 25 research note. “We note that both [Tokens.com] and [Ether Capital] continue to stake a significant portion of their portfolio and are earning high margins (roughly ~95%)."

Michael Bellusci contributed to this story.

DISCLOSURE

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.

CoinDesk - Unknown

Aoyon Ashraf is managing editor with more than a decade of experience in covering equity markets

CoinDesk - Unknown

Aoyon Ashraf is managing editor with more than a decade of experience in covering equity markets

Investing in the Future of the Digital Economy
October 18-19 | Spring Studio, NYC