Bitcoin Correction May Continue if ETF Inflows Disappoint in Next Few Days: 10x Research

Bitcoin ETF inflows on Monday and Tuesday will be the "real test" for what's next for the largest crypto asset's price, Markus Thielen wrote.

AccessTimeIconMar 18, 2024 at 4:02 p.m. UTC
Updated Mar 18, 2024 at 4:04 p.m. UTC
  • U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs attracted record inflows last week, but the trend is slowing.
  • BTC may drop to as low as $59,000 if ETF inflows fell short of expectations, 10x Research said.

Spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the U.S. notched record inflows last week, but weaker demand in the next day or so could trigger the next leg down for bitcoin's price, according to crypto analytics firm 10X Research.

The 10 ETFs combined pulled in $2.6 billion in fresh funds in the five days ended March 15, per data from Farside Investors, but most of the net inflows happened from Monday to Wednesday propelling BTC to new all-time highs of near $74,000. The bitcoin ETFs only booked $133 million and $198 million of net inflows on Thursday and Friday, respectively, while BTC turned sharply lower to below $65,000 over the weekend.

Bitcoin's price found short-term support at those levels and stabilized at $67,000, but the "real test" will come Monday and Tuesday, with bitcoin's correction potentially continuing if ETF inflows disappoint, Markus Thielen, founder of 10X, wrote in a Monday report.

"While this is an unpopular narrative, it would be expected to see inflows slow down after prices experience significant intraday volatility," the report said. "Based on our reversal indicators, a retracement to $59,035 appears more likely, offering better risk-reward entry levels," which would indicate another 10% drop from current BTC prices.

Bitcoin broke its uptrend last week, falling to $65,000 over the weekend. (10x Research)
Bitcoin broke its uptrend last week, falling to $65,000 over the weekend. (10x Research)

Despite the possibility of a deeper correction, the crypto bull market is not over yet, the report added.

"We can still argue that bitcoin will climb materially higher during the next few months as this bull market will likely continue," Thielen said. If BTC recovers above $70,000 – above its former all-time high in 2021 – the rally could open the door to much higher prices, he added.

Earlier Monday, U.K. bank Standard Chartered (STAN) boosted its year-end bitcoin price target to $150,000 from $100,000, while predicting a $250,000 high for 2025.

Edited by Nick Baker.


Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Krisztian  Sandor

Krisztian Sandor is a reporter on the U.S. markets team focusing on stablecoins and institutional investment. He holds BTC and ETH.